Egypt’s Strategic Play in Somalia: Escalating the Conflict with Ethiopia
Egypt has implemented a new security pact with Somalia, sending troops to work alongside their Somali counterparts. This agreement seeks to reinforce regional stability, a move that Ethiopia strongly opposes. Ethiopian officials accuse Egypt of actions that could upset the region’s fragile balance. This development follows a high-level meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in August, where they discussed regional collaboration.
A Longstanding Water Dispute
The conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia revolves primarily around water resources, particularly the Nile. In 1959, Egypt and Sudan reached an agreement that governed the distribution of water from the Nile River. Ethiopia was left out of this agreement, despite being a major source of the river’s water. This allowed Egypt to build the Aswan High Dam, which contributed significantly to Egypt’s agricultural productivity and energy needs.
Ethiopia, aiming to improve its own developmental prospects, initiated the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. The dam was completed in 2023 and immediately caused concern in Egypt. The dam affects the flow of the Nile downstream, which could pose a severe threat to Egypt’s water security. As the Nile is Egypt’s primary water source, any significant reduction in its flow could jeopardize its agriculture and other vital sectors.
The Widening Geopolitical Rift
The rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia is broadening beyond the Nile dispute. Ethiopia’s signing of an agreement with Somaliland earlier this year increased tensions. Somaliland, while officially part of Somalia, has operated with autonomy for years. Egypt’s alliance with Somalia serves as a counterweight to Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region. Egypt has shown interest in supporting Somalia’s territorial claims over the Ogaden region, an area with a large Somali ethnic population in Ethiopia, thereby further complicating the relationship between the two nations.
Even with the rising tensions, the chances of a direct military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia remain slim. The physical distance between the two nations, separated by Sudanese territory, makes a traditional ground war difficult. Neither country has sufficient naval capacity to challenge the other directly. Airstrikes are a possibility, but they would require navigating complex airspace controlled by neighboring nations, which limits military options.
The Proxy Conflict Scenario
A more likely outcome is the development of proxy conflicts. Ethiopia may continue to build on its alliance with Somaliland, while Egypt could potentially exploit Ethiopia’s internal ethnic divisions. Ethiopia’s past experience with internal conflict, particularly during the Tigray War, shows its willingness to act decisively in response to perceived threats. Egypt, recognizing these vulnerabilities, may seek to take advantage of them, even though any significant outside interference would likely lead to strong retaliation from Addis Ababa.
Meanwhile, Somalia struggles with ongoing insurgencies, making Ethiopia’s reach in the region limited. An Egyptian incursion through Somalia seems improbable, given the small number of troops stationed there.
Somaliland’s Role in the Broader Conflict
The situation is further complicated by Somaliland’s unresolved status. Though recognized internationally as part of Somalia, Somaliland has functioned independently for years. Ethiopia’s security pact with Somaliland has deepened the division between Somaliland and the Somali government. While a full-scale war between Somalia and Somaliland appears unlikely, continued tensions pose a risk to stability. Any aggressive move could trigger a backlash from Somalia’s international supporters, including the United States and the African Union, who are more focused on combating insurgencies in the southern regions of Somalia.
Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also have significant interests in this evolving dynamic. Turkey maintains strong relations with both Ethiopia and Somalia, making it a potential mediator in this conflict. The UAE, with its strategic interest in Somaliland’s port of Berbera, holds a delicate position. The UAE’s involvement, while economically driven, further complicates the power dynamics in the region.
A Broader Regional Conflict Emerges
The growing rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia is not limited to the Nile water dispute. It now encompasses a wider geopolitical battle in the Horn of Africa, involving several nations and external powers. Both Egypt and Ethiopia continue to maneuver for influence, but direct conflict remains unlikely. Instead, their rivalry plays out through alliances and proxy conflicts, while external actors like Turkey and the UAE further complicate the situation. As the competition intensifies, the chances of a peaceful resolution to the underlying issues seem increasingly remote.
